New Delhi:
With the Lok Sabha election dates being announced for weeks, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is busy arranging seat-sharing deals with its NDA partners or, in some cases, deciding to go it alone.
Top BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party boss JP Nadda held a grueling midnight meeting on Thursday to finalize a long list of candidates.
READ | After the meeting till 4 am, BJP can name more than 100 candidates: sources
A list of names for 100 seats – including Mr Modi for Varanasi and Mr Shah for Gandhinagar – is expected later today, sources say, as the BJP looks to ramp up pressure on rivals INDIA by releasing candidates even as the opposition group struggles has to close deals for seat share.
Haryana
Sources told NDTV that the party has opted for the solo route in Haryana, where Dushyant Chautala's JJP will be sidelined. Mr Chautala helped the BJP retain the state after the 2019 assembly elections, in which the saffron party emerged as the largest but fell six seats short of the majority.
The JJP participated in the 2019 general elections; it fielded candidates on seven seats in a deal with the Aam Aadmi Party but was routed. The JJP-AAP combine failed to win any seat.
In fact, the BJP swept the state, winning all ten seats and over 58 percent of the votes.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the BJP will cede one seat – possibly Giridh – to the All Jharkhand Students Union. The AJSU contested that seat five years ago and registered an easy victory, with Chandra Prakash Choudhary polling over 2.5 lakh votes more than Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's Jagamath Mahto.
Jharkhand sends 14 MPs to the Lok Sabha and the BJP has 12 of these seats.
Uttar Pradesh
In the politically important state of Uttar Pradesh – which sends 80 MPs to the House of Commons, by far the most of any state – sources say the BJP has decided to retain the lion's share of seats; This is understandable as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has dominated UP's electoral politics.
Only six remain for NDA members; the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal will get two each, with one each for the Nishad Party and Om Prakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party.
READ | INDIA's UP seat-sharing pact is complete, Congress is contesting on 17 seats
The BJP won 62 of UP's 80 seats in the 2019 elections and as many as 71 five years earlier. The country also defeated its rivals in state polls, winning 255 of 403 seats in 2022 and 312 in 2017.
What is perhaps an interesting point, and certainly one that will have been noted by the INDIA opposition bloc, is the declining absolute returns for the BJP over the last two central and state polls.
However, that should be offset by a marginal increase in overall vote share in each case.
Assam
And in Assam, the BJP has agreed to leave three of the northeastern state's 14 seats to its allies.
The Asom Gana Parishad gets two and the United People's Party Liberal gets the third.
READ | BJP is contesting 11 LS seats in Assam, 3 for allies: Himanta Sarma
The AGP and UPPL received the same share last time but did not win any seats, while the BJP secured nine of the 10 contested seats.
Challenges elsewhere
No decision has yet been made for other states.
This also applies to Bihar, where the political equations have undergone a sea change after Prime Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) dumped INDIA and re-aligned with the BJP. The JDU brought with it old allies of the NDA, such as the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) of ex-Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi.
The BJP must also consider existing partners such as rival factions of the Lok Janshakti Party.
Like UP, Bihar is a key state as it sends forty MPs to Parliament; only Maharashtra (another state where the BJP is still figuring out how to proceed) and Bengal have more Lok Sabha seats.
In 2019, the BJP won all 17 seats it contested, while its main ally – Nitish Kumar's JDU – claimed 16 of the 17 and the LJP (then united) added a handy six seats to the final tally.
In Maharashtra, the BJP is in final talks with the Shiv Sena and NCP factions led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar respectively. The difficulty here is to ensure that Mr Shinde and Mr Pawar are satisfied with their share as their combined strength keeps the state government afloat.
READ | INDIA's Maharashtra seat deal finalized? Congress for Dispute 18
In the last elections, the BJP was an ally of the Shiv Sena, which was then a continuous group led by Uddhav Thackeray. The BJP fielded candidates in 25 seats and won 23, while the Sena held the remaining tickets and secured 18, giving the Prime Minister's party another victory.
BJP's 2024 election game plan
Sources have told NDTV that the BJP's strategy as it runs for a third term revolves around getting feedback from sitting MPs – including but not limited to discussions with workers and voters at the grassroots level in their constituencies – and a tactical realignment to eliminate the anti-political forces. -incumbency bias.
NDTV explains | BJP's new strategy to pick candidates for the 2024 polls
The party has also said this to several MPs from Other Backward Classes. or OBCs, are expected to participate again. In 2019, the BJP saw 85 of its OBC parliamentary candidates emerge victorious.
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