New Delhi:
Often called the “Nostradamus of American presidential elections,” Allan Lichtman has earned a reputation for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes. With a track record of accurately predicting nine of the past 10 U.S. presidential elections, Mr. Lichtman's methodology has won him both praise and criticism.
To accurately predict who will occupy the Oval Office, Mr. Lichtman has created what he calls “13 Keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method that revolutionized election forecasting.
The keys, consisting of a series of true or false questions, assess several factors, including economic performance, social stability and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis of historical data since the time of Abraham Lincoln, Mr. Lichtman has developed a predictive model that transcends the conventional methods used by traditional psephologists.
“I haven't made a definitive prediction yet, but I do have a model for thirteen White House keys that have been correct since 1984 – ten elections in a row – and the way it works is if six or more of the thirteen keys are lost to go. Against the party of the White House (the incumbent) they are predicted losers and if there are less than six then they are predicted winners,” Mr Lichtman told NDTV. “Right now, a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He's only two keys down at the moment.”
Biden is expected to be challenged for a second time by Donald Trump, who is increasingly likely to be the face of the Republican Party for the 2024 US presidential elections, scheduled for November. With Mr. Biden enjoying the advantages of his incumbency and a relatively uncontested primary, Mr. Lichtman sees formidable opportunities for his challenger.
What are the 13 keys?
Despite the forecasting community's initial skepticism, Mr. Lichtman's methodology proved its worth time and time again. From Ronald Reagan's re-election triumph amid an economic recession to Bill Clinton's victory over George HW Bush, Mr. Lichtman rightly predicted a crucial US election.
The 13 keys to the White House, as designed by Mr. Lichtman, are as follows:
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party wins more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than during the previous midterm elections.
Nomination competition: There is no significant challenge to the nomination of the incumbent party.
Established position: The incumbent president represents the incumbent party.
Third Party Factor: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economic stability: The economy does not face a recession during the election period.
Long-term economic growth: Real economic growth per capita is equal to or exceeds the average growth of the previous two periods.
Policy shift: The current government is implementing major changes in national policy.
Social Stability: There is no long-term social unrest during the term.
Scandal-free: The current government remains free of major scandals.
Foreign/military accidents: There have been no significant failures in foreign or military affairs under the current government.
Foreign/military triumphs: The incumbent government has achieved significant success in foreign or military affairs.
Seated Charm: The candidate of the incumbent party possesses charisma or enjoys the status of a national hero.
Challenger Call: The opposing party's candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
Biden vs. Trump
American voters see Trump as more favorable to the economy than President Biden, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey. In this three-day poll, 41 percent of participants preferred Trump's economic approach to Biden's, while 34 percent preferred Biden's. The remaining respondents expressed uncertainty or believed that neither candidate had a superior position.
However, Mr. Lichtman said early polls should be taken with a grain of salt.
“Early polls have no predictive value. They are temporary snapshots. For example, they say, “If the election were held today, this is where the candidates are” – but the election isn't being held today, so polls are of no importance. The value for predictions is that early polls often lead you astray,” Mr Lichtman told NDTV
'As we saw in 2016, when I predicted Donald Trump's victory contrary to the polls. Or in 1988, when George HW Bush trailed his opponent Mike Dukakis by 17 points in May and June of the election year and then won with a swing of 25 points. “That's why I say to everyone, make sure the pollsters and the pundits keep an eye on the big picture as measured by the keys,” he added.
Lichtman's predictive skills were put to the greatest test during the tumultuous 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Although he predicted a victory for Gore, the controversial outcome cast a shadow over his prediction.