After much speculation in the media, the Congress Party finally announced its candidates for the Amethi and Raebareli constituencies on the last day of nomination. This brings a mix of good and bad news for the Congress cadre and supporters in Uttar Pradesh.
Rahul Gandhi has chosen to contest from Raebareli, while Gandhi family friend Kishori Lal Sharma will contest from the Amethi seat. Priyanka Gandhi has chosen not to contest the elections and instead focus on national campaigns.
There was considerable pressure from the local UP unit on the Gandhi siblings to contest from both constituencies. The fear was that Amethi Smriti's failure to contest would give Irani an easy win for the seat.
A disappointment for the conference framework
Amethi and Raebareli have been strongholds of the Congress and the Gandhi family. Not contesting it is a tacit admission that Amethi is no longer a safe bet.
The local unit had hoped that the participation of both the siblings would boost the chances in the other 15 seats where the Congress is allied with the Samajwadi Party (SP). However, their decision has left some congressional workers disheartened.
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The credit should be given to Kishori Lal Sharma, a local candidate who is well acquainted with the constituency and enjoys popularity as a Brahmin, in line with the party's strategy to regain traditional support from upper castes, tribals, Dalits and Muslims.
Politically, this move has provided ammunition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to attack the Gandhi family and the Congress. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already criticized this move by Congress and used it as fodder for attacks during election rallies. Union Home Minister Amit Shah also questioned Rahul Gandhi's numerous launches, highlighting his shifts from Amethi to Wayanad and now Raebareli.
What the numbers indicated
Rahul Gandhi has represented the Amethi seat since 2004 and lost it to Smriti Irani only in 2019. He currently represents Wayanad constituency of Kerala.
According to NDTV Data Center, the Congress has won Amethi 15 out of 18 times and Raebareli 17 out of 20 times. The latter, traditionally owned by Sonia Gandhi, is considered the small neighborhood of the Gandhi-Nehru family.
The Congress Party organization in Raebareli is stronger compared to Amethi. The BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh is not seen as a strong contender against Rahul here.
In terms of electoral performance, Rahul Gandhi had a 46% vote share in Amethi in 2014, which fell to 43% in 2019. In Raebareli, Sonia Gandhi has consistently secured a 55-56% vote share in recent elections.
Read | Raebareli is the safe seat of Congress, although it has once handed defeat to a prime minister
In the 2022 parliamentary elections, the SP and its allies won four out of five seats, while in Amethi the BJP won three and the SP two seats. Given the Congress's alliance with the SP, Raebareli seems a safer choice.
Had Rahul contested from Amethi and lost again, it would have weakened his position in the Congress party. This is probably why Rahul opted for a safer seat, making a practical decision rather than an emotional one. Moreover, he no longer has contact with the constituency.
However, Priyanka could have contested from Amethi to challenge Smriti, which could have kept the party cadre motivated and sent a strong message across the state and the Hindi heartland.
A move that backfired?
The Congress may hope to send a message that any party cadre or worker can get a party ticket, with the aim of averting accusations of dynasty politics. Some news reports suggest that Rahul wants to retain the Wayanad seat due to the warm reception from voters and his successful elections there in 2019. If he were to win, he could vacate the seat, leading to a by-election battle for Priyanka.
However, the BJP has won seats in SP strongholds like Rampur and Azamgarh in by-polls, a fact that the Congress needs to consider carefully. If Priyanka is ultimately proposed to represent the constituency, why not include her in the elections itself instead of waiting for a by-poll? Had she been deployed from Raebareli, the BJP might not have had the ammunition to attack Rahul with allegations like “bhago-mat“by Modi and”relaunch“by Shah.
Every strategic move has its pros and cons. Whether this decision turns out to be a masterstroke or a misstep will only become clear after the results of the poll on June 4.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.