The 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be the first general elections in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution in August 2019 by the BJP-ruled Center stripping it of its special status. The government has also downgraded the erstwhile state into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
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There are five Lok Sabha seats in J&K: two in Jammu and three in Kashmir. The two seats of Jammu division – Udhampur and Jammu – that voted in the first two phases had prominent BJP candidates in the fray. Union minister Jitendra Singh contested from his Udhampur seat, while MP Jugal Kishore Sharma sought re-election from the Jammu seat.
NC, PDP and BJP 'proxies'
In the absence of the BJP candidates, Kashmir's two regional parties – the J&K National Conference and the J&K People's Democratic Party (PDP) – will face each other in the three seats of Muslim-majority Kashmir.
There are also other parties: former separatist leader Sajad Lone's J&K People's Conference (PC), Altaf Bukhari's J&K Apni Party and former Prime Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP). But the NC and the PDP have called these parties 'proxies' of the BJP.
For example, former Prime Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting from Baramulla seat, where he is pitted against PDP's Fayaz Mir and Sajjad Gani Lone, the PC chief. Abdullah has openly called Lone a 'proxy' of the BJP, a charge the PC chief has denied.
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Similarly, in Anantnag-Rajouri seat, where former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti is pitted against NC's Mian Altaf, Apni Party's Zaffar Iqbal Manhas is being seen as a proxy of the BJP.
NC leader Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi and PDP's Waheed Parra are contesting against Apni Party's Mohammad Ashraf Mir in the Srinagar seat.
The Apni Party, formed in 2021 reportedly with the 'support' of the BJP, and the People's Conference, often seen close to the Centre, are backing each other in the fight.
Both NC and PDP are partners of the INDIA bloc but have decided to contest elections for three Kashmir seats separately. However, the two parties supported Congress candidates in both seats of Jammu. The BJP's decision to skip the Kashmir election came after the NC and PDP decided to contest separately.
'No rush for lotus to bloom in the valley'
Some reports suggest that the BJP has decided to stay away from direct elections in Kashmir as it wants the two regional parties – the NC and PDP – to compete against each other, paving the way for the parliamentary elections scheduled for later this year. J&K has been governed by the Lieutenant Governor (LG), the Centre's appointee, since 2018.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had held a rally in Srinagar in March. The public meeting was his first in Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, signaling the BJP's preparations in Kashmir.
But in the weeks that followed, it became abundantly clear that the BJP will not field any candidates. It was Union Home Minister Amit Shah who first indicated at a meeting in Jammu on April 16 that the saffron party might not contest in Kashmir. He said the party was in “no hurry” to see the lotus blossom in the Valley.
“We are not going to 'conquer' Kashmir as our opponents have projected. We want to win every heart in Kashmir,” he said at the meeting. Shah urged voters not to support the NC, PDP or Congress candidates in the contest.
BJP's J&K chief Ravinder Raina termed the party's decision to skip the elections as part of a broader strategy. “Sometimes decisions are made to achieve a big goal. The BJP would support 'patriotic' parties in the Valley,” Raina said at a press conference in Jammu in April.
Abdullah, in an interview with Hindustan Times, termed the BJP's decision as 'surprising' as the BJP had fielded candidates earlier. “I can understand if they hadn't competed in the Valley before. But they contested all three seats in 2019. Why not in 2024?” he asked.
'BJP's anti-Muslim stance'
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP contested all the seats in Jammu and Kashmir – winning two seats from Jammu and one from Ladakh, but all its candidates lost deposits in the three seats of Kashmir.
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The reason lies much deeper than it seems, the former prime minister said. One part, he said, is the lack of any support for them here on the ground.” It's also the fact that fielding Muslim candidates here will make their anti-Muslim stance a bit of a hard sell in the rest of the country. And you cannot field non-Muslim candidates in the predominantly Muslim majority seats in Kashmir,” Abdullah said in the interview.
'BJP behind the scenes'
The NC won all three seats in the Kashmir division in the 2019 elections. “The BJP can seek votes on the abrogation of Article 370 elsewhere in the country. But it is very difficult to rally support for the issue in Kashmir,” said a local trader in central Srinagar, who did not wish to be named.
Abdullah alleged that the BJP is contesting the Kashmir elections from behind the scenes. “I am categorical in my statement that the BJP may not have a symbol in these elections, but make no mistake, they are very much part of the electoral process, just from behind the scenes. They support their proxies wherever they can. Where else was the need for the J&K president of the BJP to come to north Kashmir and tell his workers that 'we will let you know in a few days who we should support', he said. Hindustani times.
Anantnag-Rajouri chair
Though Srinagar and Baramulla are Muslim-dominated seats, many had expected the BJP to make some inroads in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat after the addition of areas from Poonch and Rajouri regions of Jammu to the seat, previously known as Anantnag .
In fact, it was the BJP, PC, Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party that had approached the Election Commission seeking postponement of the elections for the seat from May 7 to 25. Both NC and PDP had questioned the calls for postponement of elections. polls.
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Ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has also endorsed the demand for reservation for the Pahari community. The community has significant numbers in Anantnag-Rajouri. However, an internal assessment by the BJP revealed that the party will not get much support in the elections this time, hence the move to stay out of the fray, sources said.
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Published: May 10, 2024 09:29 IST