Now that the Lok Sabha elections are underway, how will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) perform in these states under Congress rule? And what happens if the BJP wins in these three states? The answer may (or may not) lie in performance in past elections.
It is a well-known fact that the results of the Lok Sabha polls are not always in line with the state Assembly polls. Simply put, if a party wins the parliamentary elections, this does not guarantee that the same party will also win the parliamentary elections. There are many incidents that prove this. Let's look at the states one by one.
Karnataka
What do opinion polls say? The India TV-CNX Opinion Poll suggested that the BJP is likely to win the currently Congress-ruled Karnataka by winning 22 of the 28 Lok Sabha. India Today's Mood of the Nation also gave an edge to the BJP in Karnataka. It showed that the NDA (BJP + JDS) could win 24 seats and the INDIA bloc is likely to win four seats.
Trends in previous elections: The polls in the Karnataka Assembly have shown a 'revolving door' pattern – meaning the government (the party in power) changes every five years. However, the state has consistently voted in favor of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.
The last time was in 1999 that the Congress had won more Lok Sabha seats than the BJP. The Congress had won the maximum 18 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka in 1999, while the BJP had won only eight. After 1999, the BJP has won more Lok Sabha seats than the Congress – even as the state government has oscillated between the BJP and the Congress.
What happened in previous polls? In the 2013-2014 election cycle, the BJP won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, while it lost the Assembly elections in 2013. In the 2013 Assembly elections, the BJP had won 40 seats, while the Congress had won 122 seats and the JD(S) 40 seats out of the total 224 seats. Just a year later (2014), the BJP had won 17 seats (the majority), the Congress nine and the JD(S) two.
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, the BJP had won 104 seats, emerging as the single largest party. However, it failed to form a government because it did not have seven seats to cross the majority threshold. A year later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won the maximum 25 seats out of the total 28. One seat each was won by the Congress, the JD(S) and an independent candidate.
What happened next after the 2019 polls? The Congress government collapses. The Congress JDS(S)-led government in Karnataka collapsed after Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy lost confidence in the assembly. The BJP formed the government in the state.
This year, it is believed that if the Congress loses the Lok Sabha elections to the BJP, the Siddaramaiah-led current state government may fall.
Telangana
What do opinion polls say? The Mood of the Nation poll suggested that the biggest gains for the Congress would be in Telangana. The Congress would get 10 seats, compared to three seats it won in 2019. However, the BJP would lose one seat and settle for three in Telangana. Meanwhile, India TV-CNX poll said the BJP could win four seats in Telangana.
What happened in the last elections? Telangana state was formed in 2014. The regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) had won the state's first assembly elections in 2018 as well as the first Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
In the 2018 Assembly elections, a maximum of 88 seats out of the total 119 seats were won by the then TRS. The BJP had won just one seat, while the Congress won 19 seats, the AIMIM seven seats and the TDP two seats.
A year later, in the 2019 national elections, the TRS swept the polls, winning nine seats; the BJP had won four seats, while the Congress and the AIMIM won three and one seats respectively.
However, in the second assembly polls, Telangana was won by the Congress. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the grand old party had crossed the milestone of majority in the assembly i.e. 60 to form a government in the state. Will this year's Lok Sabha elections be on par with last year's polls, as happened in the previous election cycle? This will not be determined until June 4, when the results are announced.
Himachal Pradesh
What do opinion polls say? Both the Mood of the Nation poll and the India TV-CNX poll suggested that the BJP is likely to win all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh, just like in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Network18 Mega Opinion Poll predicted that the BJP could win as much as 67 percent of the votes, while the Congress could end up with only 27 percent.
What happened in the last elections? The BJP has won all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal since 2014. Here is a comparison with the Assembly elections that took place two years before the Lok Sabha elections in Himachal Pradesh:
Votes of the Assembly | Lok Sabha | Result |
2017 | BJP (44); Congress (21) | 2019 | BJP won all four seats | BJP won both |
2012 | BJP (26); Congress (36) | 2014 | BJP won all four seats | BJP won Lok Sabha, lost assembly |
2007 | BJP (41); Congress (23) | 2009 | BJP (3); Congress (1) | BJP won both |
2003 | BJP (16); Congress (43) | 2004 | BJP (1); Congress (3) | BJP lost both |
The case of Himachal Pradesh becomes even more interesting if we keep an eye on the latest uprising under the ruling Congress party. In the 2024 Rajya Sabha elections, some Congress leaders are said to have voted in favor of the BJP candidate, signaling a rift within the Congress state unit.
This makes it clear that if a party wins a parliamentary election, it does not fully reflect on the outcome of the subsequent Lok Sabha elections. What happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – will the BJP cross the 370 mark; Will Congress lose states it currently controls? The speculations will end only on June 4, when the results for this year's Lok Sabha elections will be announced.
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Published: Apr 29, 2024 06:59 IST