Ahead of the third phase of elections scheduled to take place on May 7, noted pollster and managing director of consumer data intelligence firm Axis My India, Pradeep Gupta, believes that the elections went as expected.
Also read: Lok Sabha elections 2024: Complete list of 93 seats voting in phase 3
In an interview with LiveMint, Gupta talks about the election campaign, the Modi factor, Rahul Gandhi, the rise and how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can achieve the target of 400 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Excerpts from the interview:
The third phase of the elections is scheduled for Tuesday. How do you view the elections so far?
This election is no different. The incumbent government, the National Democratic Alliance government, will discuss the claims and how they have changed people's lives. The challengers (INDIA bloc) have no choice but to make promises. And people vote based on these two things.
. than 90 percent of the time, people judge incumbents based on their track record, as has been the case in the phases thus far. The first two phases of polling mainly covered South India: Tamil Nadu and Kerala Karnataka. Some smaller states and northeastern states are also covered.
In the third phase, 25 seats of Gujarat, 10 seats of UP, 14 seats of Karnataka and some seats in Maharashtra and Hyderabad region will vote. In all these seats, the political parties have kept a particular caste group and demographics in mind during the campaign.
Also read: BJP, allies won over 100 seats in first two phases of Lok Sabha elections: Amit Shah
It is very difficult to measure the outcome based on these phases. But yeah, it's generally on the expected line.
Are we seeing any shift in strategy in either camp as we move towards the third phase?
We know that the BJP has a solid machinery and is putting all its efforts into electoral activities. The political campaign depends on the demographics. That's what we've seen in the campaign so far. Both parties (NDA and INDIA bloc) have to design their strategy based on the states going to the polls. All the talk about what the previous governments did for a particular community has been against Karnataka since the state went to polls in the second and third phases.
There are also concerns about the low turnout in the elections. Do you think this will affect the results?
I can tell you that voter turnout has nothing to do with the speeches of politicians or the campaign of parties. Voter turnout in elections is low due to factors such as weather, summer holidays and the nature of the constituency. Metro cities, which went to polls in the second phase, witnessed voter turnout due to voter apathy.
Rahul Gandhi talks about caste and Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks about Muslims, Mangalsutra? Do you see polarized elections?
First, in a forty-minute speech by a political leader, an average of five minutes deals with sensitive issues.
During the assembly elections in five states, we saw that caste was an issue raised by the opposition. It is clear that the BJP will counter. This was also a trend in recent elections. The story during the early stages focuses on specific issues. And as we move into the next phases, the bigger issues are being talked about.
What factors influence voting preference?
Unless there is some tangible change in people's lives through some promise, it will not change voting preference. I always say, out of 100 votes polled, at least 80 votes are based on which government will affect their livelihood. Other issues that will have no tangible impact on people's livelihoods will have no impact on voters' preferences.
People still vote on basic issues, roads, education, healthcare, PDS, farmers issues. The other problems will be inflation and unemployment. These problems are global and have always existed. People vote for parties and individuals they consider more suitable to solve these problems.
Where do you think the chances stand for the NDA and INDIA block till the third phase?
The incumbent government is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Prime Minister has consistently won elections and delivered results since his days in Gujarat. This also applies to other leaders when it comes to results. Take Naveen Patnaik for example, he has broken two Modi waves.
Also read: BJP 'could fall below 200 seats': Sanjay Jha tells 'why INDIA bloc will win' 2024 Lok Sabha elections
The opposition INDIA bloc is an amalgamation of regional satraps: Stalin, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav. These are popular leaders whose appeal is limited to their states. One party in the INDIA bloc with pan-India appeal is the Congress. But the party's leader, Rahul Gandhi, has never held a government post, not even a minister. So people cannot judge it upon delivery.
Each state has a different party and a different leader. You cannot look at Tamil Nadu the way you look at UP. That is, different states show different results.
The BJP and its allies have set a target of 400 seats? Do you think this is feasible? If so, how?
This question can be answered by looking at the 2024 elections based on the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 303 seats while the National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats. The NDA therefore needs 47 more seats than in 2019 to achieve its target of 400 seats.
Also read: Lok Sabha elections Phase 3 elections tomorrow: High-stakes battle in Samajwadi Party bastions for 3 Yadav family members
There are three groups based on the Lok Sabha election results of 2019. There are 10 to 12 states and UTs with 257 seats, in which BJP+ won 238 seats and the opposition won 19 seats in 2019. This means a strike rate of 94 percent for BJP+. These seats are in Bihar, MP, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa. So. I believe that based on the 2019 results, the BJP needs to improve on only 19 seats.
Then there is a group of 5 states with about 100 seats. The opposition had won 96 percent of these states – Tamil Nadu (+ Puducherry), Kerala, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Kashmir (3 seats).
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Published: May 6, 2024 12:06 IST