The Global South is everywhere and nowhere. It is everywhere as political leaders including Joe Biden, Narendra Modi, Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping have recently adopted the term. And yet it is nowhere. The Global South is not indicated on any map or in any atlas. Many countries considered part of it are actually in the Northern Hemisphere. Such cartographic distortions are foolish – but so is speaking of 'the West' when its coterie includes Australia and New Zealand.
The simplest working definition of the Global South is that it refers to most, but not quite all, non-Western countries. Some analysts would prefer to abandon the term altogether, feeling that it is too amorphous to be useful. Still, it provides useful information. The rise of the phrase reflects the rise of the countries themselves. And it points to a broad criticism of the policies of Western countries, which is sometimes justified, but sometimes also results in nihilism.
The influence of the Global South on global affairs is growing as its share of manufacturing has increased: it accounts for about 40% of global GDP and about 85% of the world's population. With this greater weight comes greater ambition. The most ambitious country of all is China, which aims to lead the emerging world. As our analysis this week shows, the country's economic power and ability to influence and coerce other emerging economies is now second only to America's.
Yet China's influence has broad limits and could decline as it becomes more autocratic. His participation in a new wave of mercantilism could trigger a trade shock in the emerging world. Other countries also have increasing ambitions to join and influence other states in the Global South. Mr. Modi claims that India is Africa's fourth-largest trading partner and fifth-largest source of foreign direct investment. The country is also deepening its ties with the Gulf States. Brazil, an agricultural power, talks about food security. Turkish companies are building infrastructure across East Africa.
The large number of countries in the Global South gives it collective weight, but makes it so heterogeneous that it is difficult to reach consensus on many issues. Taking a common position on human rights, for example, is impossible if the group includes democracies, but also absolute monarchies, hereditary dictatorships and soldier-led states. It is difficult to take a coherent position on climate change for a club that also includes poor energy importers and rich oil states. Because several countries are adversaries – think of Iran and Saudi Arabia, or India and China – security cooperation is unlikely. And since some economies have suppressed state-run financial systems, while others are more open, the idea of deep financial ties, for example through a common currency, is a fantasy.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva insists there is more that unites than divides the Global South. But often what unites the global South is a critique of what its members see as Western hegemony. The global South objects to a supposedly short-sighted focus on Ukraine and broken promises on climate finance. Accusations of hypocrisy over Israel's war in Gaza are arousing particular anger: Nicaragua has just filed a case against Germany at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), claiming the country is complicit in genocide for, among other things, selling weapons to Israel. It follows South Africa's decision to refer a genocide case against Israel itself to the International Court of Justice in January.
Some criticisms are valid. It is true that major international bodies, not least the United Nations Security Council, are not providing fair representation to the emerging world. Problems that only affect emerging economies, such as the debt crisis in very poor countries, are wrongly ignored. Nevertheless, there is a danger that the idea of the Global South may evolve into a sophisticated nihilism. China wants to weaponize the country by confusing the idea of being a developing country with being anti-Western, and thus adopting a hostile attitude towards universal liberal values. The Global South is a zone of cooperation and struggle, and a critique of the status quo. The country does not have a broad, coherent agenda for improving the world, and may never do so.