But as the regime purges its reformists, it shrinks to its inner core. In its hunger to monopolize power, it erodes the state. Once a hybrid theocracy-cum-democracy, Iran is turning into an absolute dictatorship on a shaky foundation. Church quangos increasingly dominate parliament, reducing the latter to a talking shop. A recent government survey leaked to the BBC's Persian service shows support for the theocrats is bleeding. According to the poll, support for a separation of religion and state has risen from 31% in 2015 to 73% today. “Yes-men are great when things are calm, but in times of crisis they are useless,” says a political analyst regularly in Iran. “Without opposition you lose the bridge to the people.”
Previously, the mullahs tried to win the elections. Now they have become so resigned to their unpopularity that they hardly put any effort into it. The election campaign is Iran's most lackluster election campaign since 1979. According to a poll by the state broadcaster, more than half of Iranians are unaware of the date. It is expected that many will boycott it. Fearing a fiasco, the regime has denied visas to foreign journalists. Instead of calming popular anger, the government last year executed demonstrators who had protested in 2022. A popular song is 'Strange Times' by Alireza Ghorbani. “The one who knocks on the door at night has come to turn out the light,” he sings. .
Faced with civil disobedience against their rules of modesty, the clergy rush back to the seminaries. An Iranian visitor to Britain notes with surprise that there are more veils on the London Underground than in Tehran. The revelation is so decisive that some are drawing comparisons to the Shah's final years, when women wore the veil in defiance of his ban. “Like the Shah at the end of his regime, the system is culturally bankrupt and can no longer control people's bodies,” said Yaser Mirdamadi, a dissident cleric in northern England.
The economy is driving the grievances. Iran's tough but ineffective President Ebrahim Raisi has struggled to overcome US sanctions. In contrast to the secular cabinet of his reformist predecessor Rouhani, his ministers come from the barracks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or from Imam Sadiq, a private religious university in Tehran. Years of high inflation and a devaluing currency have eroded the value of savings. Basic commodity prices are soaring and subsidies are eating up the budget, leaving little for capital expenditure. Without funding for water management, lakes and rivers dry up. The benefits come too late.
Raisi's foreign policy makes matters worse. The morning after a drone fired by an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq killed three Americans, the rial plummeted. It is unclear whether Iran controls the militias that are part of its resistance axis: Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Hashd in Iraq; and the Houthis in Yemen. On paper these are assets. But they turned out to be obligations. Iranians are concerned that their missile attacks on Israel, American soldiers and ships will bring hellfire on Iran.
Abroad, as at home, the clergy talk tough, but then make compromises. Iran has continued its rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, even as both draw closer to Israel, which Iran calls a “cancer.” After failing to convince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the Saudi Crown Prince, to come During his visit to Tehran, Mr Raisi visited the Saudi capital Riyadh in November. Iran has also indicated its willingness to change its position towards Israel in the event of a peace deal with the Palestinians at a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference in Riyadh) in favor of a two-state arrangement, implicitly recognizing Israel. Interlocutors say Iran is committed to reining in its allied militias if Israel and the Palestinians make peace.
That's me in the corner
The conversation partners also let other balloons float. When America and the Soviet Union convened an Arab-Israeli peace conference in Madrid thirty years ago, they left Iran out in the cold, despite the wishes of then-president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani to participate. Iran's new supreme leader, Mr. Khamenei, was rejected and instead convened his own conference for resistance against Israel. Hamas's bus bombings in Israel followed, undermining the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.
With talk of a peace settlement in the air again, Badr Albusaidi, Oman's foreign minister, called for another Madrid-style conference in an op-ed in The Economist, this time with Iran at the table. Although Israelis and Americans view the normalization of the Israeli Gulf as a common front against Iran, the Islamic Republic is signaling its desire to be part of a new order.
Constructive diplomacy pots, given the history of the hardliners as spoilers. But it is a measure of their desperation that they are adopting policies at home and abroad that they previously derided. “Everything that the hardliners under Rouhani were against, they are now doing themselves,” says Mirdamadi. A place at an international conference (and de facto recognition of Israel) could give the clerics the lifeline of international legitimacy and grant them a reprieve from sanctions.
It's not because we want to try alternatives. Mr Khamenei had been trying to reach China. But the country has at least partially complied with US sanctions against dollar flows. The $400 billion in infrastructure projects over 25 years that China had promised in 2021 got off to a slow start. Iranian officials now regret their bluster over a new deal with America for sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear curbs.
Without a fresh start with America, Iranians wonder how long the uneasy standoff between the clerics and their people will last. Khamenei's age (84) and poor health have left a vacuum. Unlike his predecessor, Khamenei is shying away from fulfilling the mandate by appointing a deputy. Hardliners are looking forward to the elections, especially those of the meeting of experts, to strengthen their grip on the succession. But they are hardly a united couple. Conservatives want Raisi to win the job even though he doesn't have the necessary qualifications. Others represent Mojtaba, Khamenei's second son.
Meanwhile, opposition forces are gathering against them. A circle of aggrieved, sidelined reformers hovers in the wings, waiting for the hardliners to fail. Officials who normally remain tight-lipped are now informing foreigners about the abuse of power by the hardliners. Mohammad Zarif, Rouhani's friendly foreign minister, is being held under guard and has had his passport taken away, some say.
But those who want change also disagree on how to achieve it. Ambitious IRGC commanders are pursuing the Pakistani model of a pseudo-democracy under the thumb of the military. Democrats hope for a new constitution that would grant sovereignty to parliament. Some are looking for a reformist strongman. They all seem to agree that Iran's wilayat al-faqih, or the reign of the religious lawyer, has run its course.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com
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Published: May 9, 2024 7:00 PM IST