An international climate summit starting next week in Egypt will test countries’ resolve to fight global warming, even as urgent crises distract many of the biggest players, ranging from war in Europe to rampant consumer inflation. .
More than 30,000 delegates, including representatives from some 200 countries, will gather in the seaside town of Sharm el-Sheikh from November 6-18 to discuss details about slowing climate change and help those already feeling its effects.
But with countries dealing with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with rising food and fuel prices and stuttering economic growth, the question is whether they will act quickly and ambitiously enough to avert the worst effects of climate change.
The chill in relations this year between the biggest greenhouse gas emitters China and the United States does not bode well, experts say.
A United Nations report released last week showed that most countries are falling short of their existing commitments to cut carbon emissions, with global greenhouse gas emissions on track to increase by 10.6% by 2030. compared to the 2010 level.
Scientists say emissions must have fallen by 43% by then to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures — the threshold above which climate change is out of control threatens to run.
Only 24 of the nearly 200 countries that attended the COP27 talks have submitted new or updated emissions reduction plans since last year’s UN climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, though all of them had committed themselves to do so, according to the UN climate agency.
A few countries, including Chile, Mexico and Turkey, are expected to release new plans at the conference in Egypt, but it is unclear whether major emerging economies such as China and India will be among them.
“The chance for China to take another big step in the run-up to COP27 is slim,” said Li Shuo, a Chinese climate expert at environmental group Greenpeace who is familiar with the government’s thinking.
Alden Meyer, an international climate policy expert at E3G, said the weakening of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing on issues such as Taiwan and the war in Ukraine were a headwind to global climate progress, noting that previous cooperation between the two had stimulated the climate talks.
“Is it possible to make progress without the US and China working together? Yes, it is, but it’s not easier,” he said.
The administration of US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, has urged US and international oil and gas drillers to ramp up production to address tight global markets, lower consumer prices and reduce supply disruptions associated with the Russia’s war on Ukraine – and shows how the energy crisis has changed the policy priorities of a president who campaigned for a pledge to quickly end the fossil fuel era.
The US delegation to the UN conference is likely to tout Biden’s legislative victories on climate change, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included billions of dollars in subsidies for wind and solar energy and electric vehicles.
LOSS AND DAMAGE
The two-week UN negotiations in Egypt follow a year of wild weather around the world as global warming takes its toll – from the devastating floods in Pakistan, South Africa and Nigeria to heatwaves in the Arctic and in across Europe and record-breaking drought in the American West and France.
The talks will likely be about how these and other climate change-affected countries can be compensated by rich countries believed to have caused it. Other topics include how to reform international financial institutions like the World Bank to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels.
The issue of mobilizing new funding to offset climate-driven destruction is a controversial one as rich countries, including the United States and members of the European Union, have resisted previous proposals for a “loss and damage” fund. because of concerns about their obligations.
US special envoy on climate change, John Kerry, said last week the United States supports serious dialogue on the subject at COP27, but said the issue was tricky given the upcoming congressional elections that could push the legislative body toward Republican control. bring.
He also pointed out that the United States is the largest donor of global humanitarian aid and will focus on ramping up spending on climate adaptation.
That message sounds hollow to some.
“I don’t want to hear political rhetoric about loss and damage. I don’t want to hear what countries are already doing on disaster relief because it’s not enough,” said Aminath Shauna, climate minister for the Maldives, a low-lying archipelago in the Indian Ocean. will be flooded in the future with sea level rise.
Talks were boosted by Sunday’s Brazilian election of leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose team condemned deforestation and called for an international summit on the fate of the Amazon.
The talks could also highlight natural gas, given its importance to the host continent. Oil-rich African countries claim they have the right to develop their resources, especially as Europe looks for new suppliers to replace Russia.
“African countries will call out the hypocrisy of Europe making gas deals in the name of energy security while telling African countries not to develop their baseload energy sources,” said Lily Odarno, director of the Clean Air Task Force’s climate program in Africa.
Egypt’s chief climate negotiator, Mohamed Nasr, has said the summit’s success will be measured by whether countries deliver a package of agreements that will keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. while ensuring that poorer countries are treated fairly and receive the support that rich countries have promised countries.
“Climate change is not giving us room to breathe,” Nasr said. “Science tells us we’re on the right track with nothing.”
(This story was not edited by DailyExpertNews staff and was generated automatically from a syndicated feed.)