Exploding drones are unwieldy and noisy and relatively easy to photograph from the air, and over New Year’s weekend, Ukraine says, the military shot down every one of about 80 Russia sent to the country.
“Such results have never been achieved before,” a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said on Tuesday.
But some military experts question whether the successes are sustainable.
Ukraine is becoming increasingly adept at taking down drones, but there is a growing imbalance: many of its defense weapons, such as surface-to-air missiles, cost much more than the drones. And that, some military experts say, could benefit Moscow in the long run.
Artem Starosiek, the head of Molfar, a Ukrainian consultancy that supports the country’s war effort, estimated that it costs up to seven times more to shoot down a drone than to launch one. That’s an equation the Kremlin may be counting on, some analysts say.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine warned in an overnight speech that Russia is betting on the “exhaustion of our people, our air defenses, our energy sector”.
Ukraine has vowed not to be intimidated by the airstrike, but the attacks are relentless.
Molfar said his group estimates Russia has launched about 600 drones into Ukraine since September. The campaign, targeting infrastructure and accompanied by numerous missile strikes, has knocked out power, heating and water across Ukraine just as the country’s harsh winter begins to bite, exacerbating the misery of a Russian invasion approaching its first anniversary .
The Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Moscow has increasingly relied on since October are relatively straightforward devices and fairly cheap, while the range of weapons used to shoot them down could be much more expensive, experts say. The self-destructing drones can cost as little as $20,000 to produce, while the cost of firing a surface-to-air missile can range from $140,000 for a Soviet-era S-300 to $500,000 for a US NASAMS missile.
Since the war began in February, both sides have used drones not only for reconnaissance, but also for attack. It is the first time the devices have been deployed so widely in a European war. Some military experts view Ukraine as a testing ground for state-of-the-art weapons and information systems that can predict the shape of warfare for future generations.
Kyiv military authorities have said little about the details of their air defenses — in keeping with the operational secrecy that has obscured much of their war planning — or the cost, making analysis difficult.
But it is known that while the Ukrainian armed forces have had some success against drones using anti-aircraft guns and even small arms, this has changed now that the Russians have started carrying out attacks at night. Now Kiev also relies heavily on missiles fired from fighter jets and from the ground. Over the weekend, officials said, Ukraine used surface-to-air missiles fired by NASAMS – for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System – several times to counter drones.
Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the CNA research institute, said Ukrainians used “a zoo of different air defense systems” to combat the threat, including Soviet-era and NATO missile systems, each with its own cost profile.
Some of Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses, such as the Gepard 2 radar-guided mobile gun system, are inexpensive compared to other Soviet-era and European defense systems deployed. But some US-made interceptor missiles are quite expensive compared to drones.
Still, evaluating the wisdom of taking down drones with missiles isn’t always easy.
George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said he suspected Ukraine is deploying more complex and expensive air defense systems to protect sensitive and critical infrastructure.
For example, it costs much less to shoot down a drone than it does to repair a destroyed power station, Mr Starosiek noted. And then there is the human factor.
“People are still alive,” he said.
Mathieu Boulegue, a consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, a London-based research organization, said Ukraine currently has enough air defense weapons and ammunition to combat the threat posed by Russian drones.
“The cost is irrelevant as long as the West continues to provide military aid to Ukraine,” Boulegue said. “The problem for Kiev is the moment they don’t have enough ammunition in their air defense chain to shoot down these drones.”
Aware of the risk of Western allies growing tired of the cost of supporting Ukraine’s defenses – a concern exacerbated by the transfer of leadership in the US House of Representatives to the Republicans – Ukrainian officials have warned that Russian tactics are changing.
The White House has said it is aware of reports that the Kremlin and Tehran are seeking to set up a joint drone production line in Russia. In the long run, Boulegue said, this could allow Moscow to deploy even more drones in attacks.
“That will put even more pressure on Ukraine’s air defense system,” he said.
This partly explains why Ukraine has adapted its own tactics, including by carrying out attacks on bases deep within Russian territory. The aim, Mr Boulegue said, is “to increase deterrence, which they hope will put less strain on air defences.”
For now, Moscow has changed the way it uses the drones it already owns.
Russian forces are increasingly launching their explosive drones at night and low along the Dnipro River, making it more difficult for Ukraine to detect them, said Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat, speaking on Ukrainian radio.
“The radar antenna detecting the target won’t see it if the target flies below the level of the antenna,” he said.
Andrew E. Kramer, Julian E Barnes, John Ismay and Shashank Bengali reporting contributed.