New Delhi:
In the wake of Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel, the region finds itself on the brink of a potentially devastating conflict. With sirens blaring and explosions resounding over Jerusalem, the long-standing secret war between Iran and Israel has sparked fears of further escalation and instability.
To shed light on the complicated dynamics at play, Our spoke to Simon Mabon, professor of international politics at Lancaster University and author of several books on the Middle East, to understand the status quo and what's next for the region could bring.
Regional escalation
Iran had previously threatened retaliation against Israel after an April 1 airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, which killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, including two generals.
Professor Mabon highlighted the consequences of Israel's targeted attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The consequences of this attack have significantly destabilized the region, creating a precarious environment full of uncertainty.
“The Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus has had a dramatic impact on regional politics by making the region a more uncertain and unstable environment. The direct attack from Israel resulted in the killing of senior members of the IRGC and drew strong condemnation. of senior Iranian figures, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” Professor Mabon told Our.
“This has raised serious concerns among many in Israel, the United States and abroad about Iranian retaliation against Israel. But this can take a number of different forms. “Iran feels it is under pressure to respond because of its long-standing support for the Palestinian cause and by virtue of its long-standing opposition to the State of Israel,” he added.
The Iranian military stated that its drone and missile attack on Israel had achieved all its intended objectives.
“As a result of Iran being the de facto leader of the 'Axis of Resistance,' Iran is in somewhat of a bind here. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, it has been very careful not to respond to escalation. with Israel, but at the same time the country is in some ways being forced into a form of retaliation,” Professor Mabon said.
Possible Israeli answer
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today that his country has been preparing for years for a direct attack by Iran and will “harm” anyone who harms them.
“Israel has said that if there is a direct attack from Iranian territory, it will respond in kind. That is an interesting wording in the sense that there is a direct Iranian attack,” said Professor Mabon.
US President Joe Biden, Israel's strongest ally, has pledged “rock-solid” support for Israel. Historically, Israel's firm stance on attacks on its territory indicates that any direct attack from Iranian territory will be met with swift reprisals. Despite the preference for de-escalation, the specter of conflict looms large, especially as Israel considers its next step.
“No one wants an escalation at this point, but the decision of Israel's war cabinet will be absolutely critical in what happens next. Or Netanyahu decides that the ability to deter, arising from the ability to complete the colossal attack authorized at any given time, The enormous economic cost of an estimated one billion dollars is enough to say to Israel's rivals : 'Look, we'll stop you no matter the cost.'
In a region full of volatility, the smallest misstep can trigger a catastrophic escalation with far-reaching consequences
“What will Israel do now? Will the Iranian attacks provoke a new response? The Iranians have been very keen to say that this has nothing to do with the US,” he said.
Pressure on Netanyahu
Earlier this year, thousands of Israelis rallied in Jerusalem demanding more action to free prisoners held in Gaza and Netanyahu's removal.
About 250 hostages were taken by Hamas militants during the October 7 attacks on Israel that sparked the conflict. Israel estimates that 130 people, including 33 presumed dead, remain in captivity in Gaza.
“Since October 7, the Netanyahu leadership and his coalition have doubled down on their tough stance on dialogue with Palestinian leaders. Unless the hostages are released, Netanyahu will not meet with Palestinian leaders to discuss the future of the state of Palestine. The current dialogue is about releasing the hostages in pursuit of a ceasefire,” Professor Mabon said.
“The other thing to note here is that Netanyahu's political future is at stake. In the event he is removed from power, which is increasingly likely in light of the widespread protests against his rule and leadership he is facing. He wants to double down on his position because he sees it as a way to stay in power,” he added.
Prospects for regional peace
Against this backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, the prospects for peace talks between Israel and Hamas appear increasingly bleak.
Israeli spy agency Mo said today that the Palestinian militant group Hamas had rejected international mediators' latest proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza war.
Egypt, Qatar and the US have previously acted as brokers in the negotiations, but a viable deal has proven elusive. The mediators tried to broker a ceasefire before the start of Ramadan, but progress stalled.
“Public calls for a ceasefire have increased, but unless the US openly calls for a ceasefire and condemns the actions of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) in Gaza, the Israelis are unable to do so” noise” as they see it, to ignore, bypass or avoid. said Professor Mabon.
Post-conflict reconstruction
In Gaza, which has been under continuous bombardment by Israeli forces since the October 7 attacks, rebuilding the region after the conflict is a monumental task, fraught with multifaceted challenges and complexities.
“Rehabilitation and reconstruction in terms of conflict is an incredibly challenging task. Reconstruction after a conflict is extremely expensive and an enormous challenge. People are dealing with devastation, loss of livelihoods, families and injuries, both mental and physical, and all of that adds up to an incredibly tense environment,” Professor Mabon said.
“Then there is the added economic burden – who is going to pay for the reconstruction, because there is no money in Gaza or Palestine at the moment. The Palestinian economy has been decimated by what has happened, and Gaza's economy in particular has been destroyed. So there are numerous challenges in Gaza in terms of reconstruction,” he added.
Since the Israelis launched their attack on Gaza, an estimated 33,686 people have been killed in the besieged Palestinian enclave.