Imran Khan was imprisoned and silenced. His colleagues were not allowed to participate in the elections in Pakistan under the name of their party. They were not even allowed to use the famous cricket bat symbol.
Still, candidates from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party – which runs as independents – made a strong impression in the controversial polls. Independents, largely backed by the former prime minister, won 100 of the 265 contested seats in the House of Commons, with results for 12 not yet announced. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz won 71 seats, while Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party had 54 seats.
The strong performance of independent voters highlights Khan's continued popularity among the country's 129 million registered voters, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet amid Asia's fastest inflation. It also highlights public disillusionment with the status quo of Pakistani politics, represented by the parties of the Sharif and Bhutto clans.
“The fact that PTI-backed independent parties are taking the lead at this time, despite all the hurdles their party has faced in the run-up to the elections and during the campaign, is a major problem for Pakistan,” said Madiha Afzal, foreign affairs officer policy at Brookings Institution. “It shows the strength of Khan's base, Pakistan's young middle class.”
Khan's loyalists have won the most seats and have the first right to form a government, PTI party chairman Gohar Ali Khan said at a briefing on Saturday. With all parties failing to win a majority, Sharif spoke to cheering crowds from his stronghold of Lahore on Friday. , who claims victory and promises to speak with Bhutto Zardari's PPP about forming an alliance to lead the country.
Sharif's move may be welcomed by the powerful military that has clashed with Khan. Analysts say three-time former Prime Minister Sharif, who returned from exile in London last year and was acquitted of corruption charges, had the military's blessings for the top job. Bhutto Zardari, 35, is the son of Benazir Bhutto, a former leader who was assassinated in 2007.
“Pakistan's diverse polity and pluralism will be well represented by a united government of all democratic forces, with a national goal in mind,” the army said on Saturday. “Elections and democracy are means to serve the people of Pakistan and not an end in themselves.”
The elections were marred by terrorist attacks in remote provinces on the border with Afghanistan, which left dozens dead. On election day, Pakistan suspended mobile phone services across the country as it was necessary to maintain law and order. The US and the European Union expressed concern over the suspension of mobile phone service and election irregularities.
Any instability and unrest after the elections would weigh on an economy that is already under pressure on several fronts. Inflation is at 28% and the International Monetary Fund's latest bailout program expires in March, suggesting the next leader will have to negotiate a new deal. He will also have to deal with complex ties with the US and China, rising domestic terrorism and strained relations with neighboring countries such as India, Afghanistan and Iran.
Bank employee Nazir Arsalan, 32, said he voted for an independent party backed by Khan because the previous government failed to control inflation and he could not lead a “respectable life.”
Khan, who led Pakistan to victory at the 1992 Cricket World Cup, is the country's most popular politician. He was removed from power in April 2022 after clashes with the military. He then began organizing protest rallies, breaking a taboo by openly criticizing the military, until the government and military came under pressure.
He is now in prison in Rawalpindi, where the army has its headquarters. He was recently sentenced to three more sentences, including for leaking state secrets and having an unlawful wedding.
In an AI-generated post-election speech, Khan criticized Sharif as a “dishonorable man” for claiming victory despite winning fewer seats.
“My Pakistanis, you laid the foundation for your freedom by voting yesterday,” Khan said in the speech on his party's website. “I congratulate you all on your election victory in 2024.”
Most of Khan's independents are political novices, as many senior figures left the party following military and government crackdowns. Some of these may be poached by other parties as the horse trade begins after the hung parliament. It is not unusual for politicians in South Asia to switch sides after the polls.
It could take weeks before a government is formed. But any alliance between the Sharif and Bhutto clans would likely anger Khan's millions of young supporters, who latched onto the former cricket star's populist rhetoric and saw parties as representatives of the old ways of Pakistani politics.
“Imran is an honest man,” said Zakir Khan, 35, a supporter from a poor area of the commercial capital Karachi. “We have tried and tested all the others.”