The Lok Sabha elections have begun. While the ruling BJP is doing everything it can to secure its return, the INDIA opposition bloc is determined to stop it. But there are other elections nearby that India is closely watching: the parliamentary elections in the Maldives.
More than 2.8 million people are voting today to elect 93 members of the Maldivian Parliament – known as Majlis – to a five-year term. It should be noted that this election is not to elect the president. Mohamed Muizzu, whose anti-India stance and support for China have made international headlines, will remain in the top position regardless of the outcome of the national elections. But the results will determine whether he gains the political strength to move the policy forward.
Why elections in the Maldives are important
President Muizzu came to power in elections for the top position last year. But his party, the National People's Congress, is part of an alliance that is in a minority in the 93-member House of Representatives. The Maldivian Democratic Party, led by Muizzu's pro-India predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, dominates the Majlis with 41 members. The lack of a parliamentary majority has stalled Muizzu's policy plans, with opposition members highlighting his anti-India stance. A senior aide to Muizzu told the AFP news agency that “geopolitics is very much in the background” in these elections. “He came to power promising to send Indian troops back and he is working on that. Parliament has not cooperated with him.”
India, China View result
Shortly after coming to power, Muizzu pushed for the departure of a small group of Indian soldiers stationed in the island for humanitarian activities. He also visited China and met Chinese President Xi Jinping. Upon his return, he said, “We may be small, but this doesn't give them license to bully us.” Although he did not name any country, the comment was seen as a swipe at India.
However, last month Muizzu appeared to extend an olive branch when he acknowledged India's financial support to Male and said: “India will remain Maldives' closest ally”. At the end of last year, the Maldives owed India about $400.9 million.
India has so far taken a cautious approach and downplayed the strained ties. Asked about relations between New Delhi and Male after Muizzu's election, Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar that neighbors need each other. 'History and geography are very powerful forces. There is no way around that,” he had said.
Beijing, which has significantly increased aid to the Maldives and signed several pacts for infrastructure projects after Muizzu came to power, is also closely watching the Maldives elections against the backdrop of pressure on the Indian Ocean and its strategic significance from Male.
What is the mood in the Maldives?
Speaking to Our, Maldivian journalist Ahmed Aaidh described public perception of Muizzu as “mixed”. “I don't see any party gaining a majority. It will be very tight, maybe 50-50,” he said. A major factor that could prevent any party from gaining a clear majority in the House of Representatives is the divisions in all major political forces, including Muizzu's People's National Congress.
On whether Muizzu's pro-China policies will hurt his party in the polls, former ambassador and Indian Foreign Service official Rajiv Bhatia said: “When the presidential elections took place, Muizzu's party won. This was followed by the mayoral elections which his party lost .This is the final stage of the political contest. My perception is that while the comparison of Maldives with India and China is a big deal, local issues such as public welfare, education, healthcare, transport and inflation will also matter.
Mr Aaidh said that while Muizzu had claimed during this presidential election campaign that he would not choose any country. “But several major projects have been given to Chinese companies. So questions are being asked whether there is corruption. We are going to the polls in the middle of this scandal.”
The results of the elections in the Maldives are likely to become clear later today.