London:
Britain's ruling Conservative party is expected to suffer heavy losses in crucial local elections this week, likely increasing pressure on beleaguered Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
The polls are the last major election test before the general election that Sunak's party, in power since 2010, appears destined to lose to the Labor opposition.
Sunak has said he wants to hold the national vote in the second half of the year, but a heavy defeat in Thursday's election could force him out sooner.
“This election represents a vital test for the Sunak premiership – testing the claim that the plan is working and the extent to which voters continue to lend that idea some degree of credibility,” political scientist Richard Carr told AFP.
Incumbent governments tend to suffer losses in local conflicts, and pollsters predict the Conservatives will lose about half of the council seats they defend.
Sunak's immediate political future would depend on whether two high-profile Tory regional mayors are re-elected in the West Midlands and Tees Valley areas of central and north-east England.
Victories for Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen would boost hopes among Tory MPs that Sunak can turn their party's fortunes around in time for the general election.
But there is speculation in the British parliament that a bad result could prompt some restive Conservative lawmakers to replace Sunak before national elections.
“If Andy Street and Ben Houchen both lose, any idea that Sunak can continue will be a thing of the past,” said Carr, a lecturer in politics at Anglia Ruskin University.
“Whether that means he rolls the dice in a general election or is impeached remains to be seen.”
The Tories have been plagued by factional power struggles in recent years. Since the 2016 Brexit vote, they have served five prime ministers, including three in the four months from July to October 2022.
A group of restive Conservative MPs have drawn up a 'policy blitz' for a potential successor to Sunak in the event of huge losses this week, British media have reported.
Sunak needs to be replaced?
Some observers say it would be madness for the Conservatives to topple another leader, while Sunak has provided some stability since succeeding Liz Truss in October 2022.
Others say the party's credibility has already been damaged, so why not try one last ditch effort to stop a predicted Labor landslide.
Around 52 MPs would have to submit letters of no confidence in Sunak to trigger an internal vote in the party to replace him – a big ask.
“I still expect Sunak to lead the Conservatives into the general election,” Richard Hayton, professor of politics at the University of Leeds, told AFP.
“But some MPs may try to move against him, which will further damage his standing with the general public.”
Sunak, 43, was an internal Tory appointment after Truss's disastrous 49-day premiership, during which her unfunded tax cuts caused market turmoil and the pound fell.
Despite numerous leadership resets under Sunak, the Tories continue to trail Labour, led by Keir Starmer, by double figures in most opinion polls.
An Ipsos poll earlier this month put Sunak's satisfaction rating at a collective low of minus 59 percent.
More than 2,500 councilors in England will stand on Thursday, as will London's Labor mayor Sadiq Khan, who is seeking a record third term in office.
Most of the council seats up for re-election were last contested in 2021, when ex-Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson was popular as he rolled out Covid-19 vaccines.
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