Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of its second-largest city and progress along the front are raising concerns that Kiev's military efforts are nearing the breaking point.
A dire shortage of ammunition and manpower along the 1,200-kilometer front and gaps in air defenses show Ukraine is at its most vulnerable moment in more than two years of war, according to Western officials with knowledge of the situation.
The risk is a collapse of Ukraine's defenses, an event that would give the Kremlin an opening to take a major step forward for the first time since the conflict's early stages, at least one official said.
The next few months will see Ukraine's toughest test, as the public grows exhausted from the war, especially in the city of Kharkov in the country's east, which has been particularly targeted.
Krystyna Malieieva, who fled the city after Russia invaded and then returned, said the unpredictability of the attacks has terrified the city's residents, even though most do not believe the Kremlin can take over a metropolis whose pre-war population was 1, had 5 million inhabitants.
“There is a very depressed mood in Kharkov now,” Malieieva, a family center owner who returned in 2023 after a year in Croatia and Britain, said in an interview. “Last year, people came back, new restaurants opened – and now I see people fleeing again.”
The Russian armed forces are benefiting from a widening shortage of ammunition supplies. Moscow will secure six million grenades this year by increasing production and supplies from North Korea and Iran, according to an official.
Hanging over everything is the stalled $60 billion US aid package, which is subject to infighting as Republicans in the House of Representatives demand immigration concessions from President Joe Biden. If these funds do not come through, Ukraine will have no alternative at its darkest moment, the officials said.
Instead of being able to retake the occupied territory, which was the goal last year, Kiev's forces have struggled to hold Russia's advance. President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Russia could mobilize as many as 300,000 new troops by June 1.
Congress must take action to approve the military aid and there is no way around that, a White House National Security Council spokesman said.
The US sees no sign of an imminent breakthrough by Russian forces, said a US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But Ukraine's morale is low and the possibility of a collapse of the Ukrainian army cannot be ruled out, another official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The destruction early Thursday of a thermal power plant some 45 kilometers south of Kiev – the largest producer in the region around the capital – highlighted the country's vulnerability to rocket attacks. Zelenskiy called the military's lack of air defense “the biggest challenge” in the hours after the attack.
The Trypilska's demise was part of a nationwide barrage of missiles and drones that hit targets including factories and gas storage facilities in five regions. European natural gas futures rose to their highest level in more than two weeks, with benchmark futures rising as much as 7.1%.
Russian forces have also unleashed their firepower along the entire front line, making marginal gains since capturing the eastern city of Avdiivka in February. Kremlin forces are trying to close strategically important places, such as the city of Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut in Ukraine's Donetsk region.
After months of delays, Zelenskiy and Ukrainian lawmakers accelerated controversial legislation to strengthen the ranks of the armed forces, approving a lower conscription age and tightening draft rules.
A major concern is Kharkov, which Russian forces tried but failed to capture during the opening campaign of the war. The city's proximity to the Russian border makes it vulnerable to Russian shelling. Kremlin forces have pelted the country with S-300 ballistic missiles and glide bombs, destroying large parts of residential areas and destroying virtually all local energy generation capacity.
For the first time since the invasion began, fewer than half of Ukrainians believe the country can retake all the territory occupied by Russia, according to a February survey by the Kiev-based Rating Group. And while most Ukrainians still believe in victory, they increasingly wonder what it might bring.
So far there has been no mass exodus from Kharkov. Oleksandr Savchuk, the owner of a boutique publishing house, said the daily attacks will only force him to leave when Russia draws artillery to the city limits.
“The fact that we are here is also a form of resistance,” he said.
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