New Delhi:
As Ukraine marks a grim two-year milestone in a devastating conflict with Russia, prospects for peace appear bleak. The war-torn landscape, vividly depicted in satellite images, tells a story of widespread destruction caused by the brutal Russian bombing campaign.
Despite initial setbacks for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the winter of 2022, recent developments indicate a revival of Moscow's military ambitions. The once hopeful signs of negotiation appear remote, with Putin's recent comments suggesting that any talks would take place on Moscow's own terms, leaving little room for compromise.
The brutal bombardment was a single terrorist event in a Russian offensive that recently resulted in the capture of the war-torn industrial center of Avdiivka by Vladimir Putin's forces, located 30 kilometers to the east.
Russia declared full control over Avdiivka after Ukraine's withdrawal. Moscow acknowledged the presence of Ukrainian troops still holed up in a sprawling Soviet-era coking plant, marking the aftermath of one of the war's most intense battles.
“Measures are being taken to completely clear the city of militants and to block Ukrainian units that have left the city and holed up in the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said recently .
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, especially near the village of Progres, Ukrainian troops are actively building new defense lines. These fortified positions will serve as the latest obstacle for Russian forces in their attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses.
Analysts and diplomats agree that 2024 is likely to see another year of conflict, with Ukraine's determination to regain lost territories clashing with Putin's insistence on Kiev's unconditional surrender. Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the think tank of the Kremlin-linked Foreign and Defense Policy Council, dismisses the possibility of negotiations in the near future, claiming that Moscow and Kiev have nothing to negotiate.
While Ukraine successfully repelled a much larger opponent in the first year of the invasion, cracks are beginning to appear in Kiev's resolve. The depletion of Ukrainian troops, delays in US military aid and political tensions in Kiev raise concerns about the sustainability of their resistance.
Satellite images vividly show the extensive destruction in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where most of the conflict since the war began.
Bakhmut, with a population of around 70,000 before the Russian invasion, is seen by Moscow as a strategic pillar in its drive for control of the wider industrial Donbas region to the east, which shares a border with Russia.
The images released by Maxar show significant damage to schools, university buildings, apartment buildings and a radio tower in the city.
The Kremlin officially acknowledged last December that a Ukrainian attack had damaged a warship docked in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosiya, a development that Ukraine and its Western allies labeled a significant setback for the Russian navy. Ukraine reported that its air force successfully destroyed the Novocherkassk landing ship.
In a light-hearted comment on social media, President Volodymyr Zelensky joked that the ship has now become part of the “Russian Black Sea Underwater Fleet.”
Putin's recent interview with right-wing American talk show host Tucker Carlson revealed Moscow's intentions. While indicating a willingness to negotiate, Putin's terms for Kiev appear non-negotiable, making any meaningful dialogue elusive. The Russian president's strategic calculations are affected by the erosion of Western support for Ukraine, the inability of US policy to deliver aid quickly, and the rise of far-right sentiment in Europe.
The delay in US military aid due to political disputes and Europe's struggle to supply enough weapons are adding to the sense of uncertainty in Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia has weathered Western sanctions, mobilized its economy for war and silenced internal opposition, as evidenced by the sudden death of Alexei Navalny.
With the US elections approaching, the outcome could further determine the trajectory of the conflict.