Doha:
Qatar's warning that it was reconsidering its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the prospects for a ceasefire and the return of hostages.
Since Hamas' deadly attack on Israel on October 7 led to devastating retaliation against Gaza, Qatar has been a key conduit for the Palestinian militant group, whose political office is based in Doha.
The gas-rich emirate, which also hosts the largest US military base in the region, successfully brought about a week-long lull in fighting in late November when dozens of Israeli and foreign hostages were freed.
But with months of further negotiations failing to reach a ceasefire, and Qatar facing criticism from Israel in particular, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Wednesday it was time for a “complete re-evaluation” of its role.
What prompted Qatar's warning?
Qatar has rejected Israeli criticism of its mediation for months, including that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Qatari embassy in Washington also lashed out at Congressman Steny Hoyer, the top Democrat in the US House of Representatives, who has urged the government to reconsider its relationship with Qatar and called on Doha to apply pressure practice on Hamas. for the release of hostages.
Without naming names, Sheikh Mohammed said Qatar has fallen victim to “point scoring” by “politicians who try to conduct election campaigns by denigrating the State of Qatar.”
Middle East expert James Dorsey said the prime minister's statements showed Qatar is backing away rather than seriously considering giving up mediation, which he called a “key pillar of the country's soft power.”
He explained that Qatar's main focus was “Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters in the US Congress,” but that there was also “an attempt to pressure the Biden administration to stand up for Qatar.”
Golf expert Andreas Krieg said Qatar played an “instrumental role” in securing the November hostage exchange and that the emirate has become “very dissatisfied with the way this is not recognized by everyone, especially in Israel.”
But he also said it is unlikely that “Qatar is truly sincere in its attempt to withdraw from this mediation effort” after it “monopolized this relationship in a way that no one else can do what Qatar can do.”
Why have negotiations stalled?
Israel and Hamas have traded blame over the failure to make progress on a framework put forward by Qatar, the United States and Egypt that would halt fighting in Gaza for six weeks and trade about 40 hostages for hundreds Palestinian prisoners.
Sticking points include Hamas' long-standing demands for a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, which Israeli officials have repeatedly opposed.
Last week, Israel's Mossad spy agency said Hamas' rejection of the latest proposal showed the militant group “does not want a humanitarian agreement and the return of the hostages.”
Would the talks end without Qatar?
Hamas's political office has been based in Qatar since 2012, at the request of the United States.
Krieg said Qatar had become “indispensable” to the mediation and although Egypt was involved, “the Egyptians don't have the kind of ways to… that Qatar has.”
“I think mediation can continue without the Egyptians, but not without the Qataris,” the King's College London academic said.
Dorsey said that “if Qatar were to reduce or end its role in the negotiations, pressure to oust Hamas would increase.”
If Hamas leaves Qatar, Algeria, Lebanon and Iran – Hamas's main backers – are being touted as possible bases for its leadership.
“If suddenly it's Iran, who are the Americans and Israelis talking to to reach Hamas?” Dorsey said.
Sheikh Mohammed announced Qatar's reassessment together with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who spoke for three hours in Doha on Wednesday with Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders.
Haniyeh will visit Turkey this weekend as a guest of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“If Qatar, for any reason, were forced to give up or reduce its role in the negotiations, Turkey would be a candidate,” Dorsey said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Our staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)