New Delhi:
Above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of South Asia during the 2024 southwest monsoon season, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum said today.
The forecast follows the forecast of above-normal rainfall during India's monsoon season, thanks to favorable La Nina conditions, which are expected to begin in August-September.
“Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of South Asia, except some areas in the northern, eastern and northeastern parts of the region, where below-normal rainfall is most likely is likely,” the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) reports.
Above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast in most parts of South Asia during the season, with the exception of some areas in the southeastern part of the region where normal temperatures are most likely.
These regional climate outlooks for the 2024 southwest monsoon season were developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with support from international experts during the 28th session of SASCOF-28, which was held online.
SASCOF said there are currently moderate El Nino conditions. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are expected in the first half of the monsoon season. After that, La Nina conditions could develop in the second half.
El Nino conditions – periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
La Nina conditions – the antithesis of El Nino – are the dominant factor in the likelihood of 'above normal' rainfall during the monsoon season, DS Pai, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI.
Positive dipole conditions in the Indian Ocean, favorable for the Indian monsoon, are forecast in the latter part of the season. In addition, snow cover is low in the Northern Hemisphere. The extent of winter and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere generally has an inverse relationship with subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall in South Asia.
Earlier this month, the IMD said India's seasonal rainfall will be at the higher end of 'above normal' and pegged it at 106 percent of the long-term average (87 cm).
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