The newly formed National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Bihar, led by Nitish Kumar, won the confidence vote as the opposition, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), staged a strike. A simple majority in the House is 122; the NDA had the support of 127 MLAs, with three RJD legislators cross-voting.
During the confidence motion, former Deputy Chief Minister and Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav unleashed a barrage of sarcastic taunts, calling Nitish Kumar 'palturam' and questioning whether Prime Minister Modi could guarantee that Nitish would not return again. This vote of confidence became necessary when Nitish, the orchestrator of the opposition INDIA bloc, made a surprise U-turn last month and rejoined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA. In classic Nitish style, this somersault was executed with finesse and ease, with his resignation from Mahagathbandhan and swearing-in as NDA Chief Minister taking place within a day.
Nitish's move could weaken Bihar's BJP
While Nitish's return strengthens BJP's 'Mission 400' bid for 2024, it weakens the local unit's efforts to gain a foothold in the state without relying on Nitish. Social media had a great day, flooded with memes about “palturam's” latest flip-flop. One meme that humorously struck me stated that in Bihar, the chief minister resigns, but it is the deputy chief ministers who lose their posts.
The BJP has set a 'Mission 50% vote share' target and a 'Mission 400+ seats' target for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to break the record of 404 seats set by Rajiv Gandhi in 1984. With the INDIA bloc failing to get off the ground, the opposition in disarray, hurdles in seat-sharing talks and a positive, emotionally charged atmosphere emerging in the country after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, the BJP is feeling a chance.
The return of Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) to the NDA also neutralizes to a large extent the narrative of allies leaving the BJP. With the re-entry of the JD(U), the NDA's seat tally has returned to around 350 seats, close to the 2019 tally of 353. The ruling alliance now needs just 50 seats to cross the magic mark.
A rainbow coalition
With Nitish back in power, the NDA is expected to repeat its 2019 tally of 39 out of 40 seats, as per a latest NDTV survey. Without the JD(U), surveys predicted a loss of around 15 seats. According to the survey, 53% of respondents are likely to support an NDA, while only 23% are in favor of the INDIA bloc, while 18% of respondents are undecided.
Had Nitish stayed with the INDIA bloc, it would have been a dead end, with 35% of respondents supporting both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, while 20% remained undecided.
The NDA now has a rainbow coalition of upper caste, Kurmi/Koeri, Most Backward Classes (MBCs), Mahadalits and Paswans, who constitute about 60% to 65% of the state's population. Party strategists believe there is still scope to win 16 seats in Uttar Pradesh, one in Bihar, two in Jharkhand, two in Chhattisgarh, one in Madhya Pradesh and one in Rajasthan, making a total of 23 seats in North India, helped by the passion surrounding Aries. Mandir.
However, Nitish Kumar's readmission is something of a blow to the BJP's ambitions to strengthen the party on a standalone basis in Bihar. The party had appointed young leader from the Koeri community, Samrat Chaudhary, to lead the brigade and develop the party base, with the aim of weakening Nitish Kumar's hold on a section of lower OBCs. With the induction of Jitan Ram Manjhi, it hoped to develop new leadership among Mahadalits. Nitish's return to the NDA, just a year and a half before the state elections next year, derails these ambitions.
Voters may be confused
In the 2020 state elections, Nitish alleged that the BJP strategically fielded Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) candidates in its seats to weaken him, which led to the JD(U) getting only 43 seats in the saw a decline of 28. Data shows that the LJP damaged JD(U)'s prospects on around 30 seats, which was one of the points of contention between the two parties and a major reason why Nitish quit the NDA in 2022.
All this could send confusing signals to core voters, a recognition perhaps that the BJP does not have leaders who can match the popularity and charisma of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Today in Bihar, the clear number two leader is Tejashwi Yadav, who is young, dynamic and also has administrative experience.
The MGB got a 37% vote share in the 2020 state elections, similar to that of the NDA, falling eight seats short of the majority. If the Congress had performed better (it had the worst strike rate of 27% and won only 19 of the 70 seats allocated), the MGB would have done much better.
The issue of accommodating Nitish at the Centre
The details of the deal are not public. Will Nitish remain Prime Minister till 2025? Will the 2025 state elections be fought under his leadership? Will the BJP want him to resign and project his own CM face? Relaxing Nitish before 2025 and adjusting him at the Center will not be easy because of “kissa kursi ka”. Why would he want to be an insignificant minister under Modi at the Center when he could be the king of a state with less intervention?
Nitish Kumar's return signals short-term gains for the BJP, but comes with potential long-term pain. Will there be another realignment after short-term gains are made?
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.