The battle for Maharashtra will not be easy and the state, with the largest number of seats after Uttar Pradesh, will certainly play a key role in controlling Delhi. In all elections except 1977 and 1989, the party that won the most seats in Maharashtra formed the government at the Centre. Maharashtra has 48 seats and it is difficult to say which way the state will go, a panel of experts concluded on NDTV this evening.
The factors expected to influence the elections in the state are numerous, including caste, the fluctuation of the minority vote and the farmers' agitation, the panelists said. But at this point it would also depend on what the BJP and the Opposition want to focus on.
Psephologist and educationist Sandeep Shastri – one of the panelists on 'Battleground' moderated by NDTV Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia – said, “If the campaign focuses on the BJP, it could change some things. focus on – on Uddhav Thackeray or on Sharad Pawar – that would also be a deciding factor.”
Senior journalist Rohit Chandavarkar said Maharashtra is already a developed state when it comes to industries.
“So jobs are not a big problem here. In UP it may be a problem but not here. A person may have to leave his village but he will find a job 100 km away. Price hike is also not really a problem here… That's why caste is a big factor here; the opposition is also taking advantage of the farmers' agitation,” he said.
What is also expected to influence the elections – both in the state and the rest of the country – is the Narendra Modi factor.
Political strategist and commentator Amitabh Tiwari felt that this could be the only factor that can keep the UPA and the NDA apart. “In 2019, one in three voters voted for the Modi factor. The difference between INDIA and NDA this year could be this factor,” he said.
“There has been a major change in the BJP strategy after 2019. The Prime Minister and the party have focused on Modi guarantees. This time, the votes on the Modi factor could increase,” Mr Shastri added.
“Rahul Gandhi's image is improving, but Prime Minister Modi is miles ahead in terms of leadership,” says academic and social scientist Dr Maneesha Priyam.
“Voting is an emotional decision and not a rational decision. But no election can be called a done deal for these three reasons: there are many late deciders in India, 25 percent vote for the names of candidates, 69 percent float. voters and they are the kingmakers. Therefore, it will be unpredictable in Maharashtra,” Mr Tiwari said.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra are pitted against the combined strength of the BJP, Eknath Sinde's Shiv Sena faction and the Nationalist Congress Party's Ajit Pawar faction.
The alliance sought to include Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, who is known to enjoy significant support among Dalits. But the indecision in some key areas has upset Mr Ambedkar, who wants the MVA to make a decision.
The rough model for seat-sharing by the MVA is that the Congress is close to 18 of the state's 48 seats, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena 18-20 seats and the Sharad Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party 8-10 seats. But the big battle is on nine seats, including Kolhapur, Sangli, Hingoli, Jalna, Ramtek and a few seats in Mumbai, which have not yet been decided.