Early on January 12, American and British warplanes bombed dozens of targets in Yemen. . Allied attacks could take place. President Joe Biden said: “I will not hesitate to take further action.” The strikes followed nearly two months of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The group says this is a show of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, and that it is only targeting ships with connections to Israel (it has also fired rockets into southern Israel). In practice, however, the attacks have been indiscriminate and appear to target any ship within range, including American and British warships. The world's largest container shipping lines are now avoiding the Red Sea.
Last month, America set up a multinational coalition to secure the waterway, and on January 3 the coalition gave the Houthis a “final warning.” They responded hours later by detonating a Navy drone several miles away from commercial ships and U.S. warships. a week later with a barrage against an American aircraft carrier group and a British destroyer.
The coalition had valid reasons for attacking the Houthis: freedom of navigation is a core principle of international law. Doing nothing would be tantamount to tolerating the blockage of a waterway that handles perhaps 30% of the world's container traffic. Hapag-Lloyd, a German container company, welcomed the action: “The strikes were necessary to guarantee freedom of navigation along a vital sea route.” Whether the strikes will be effective is another matter: the Houthis have proven resilient before.
The Houthis were once the instigators of a local Shiite uprising in northern Yemen. In 2014, the Houthis moved south amid the chaos that followed the overthrow of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's former dictator. They conquered most of the country's major population centers. A Saudi-led coalition invaded in March 2015 to remove them from power and restore the internationally recognized government. At the time, Saudi officials believed they could conclude the war within six weeks. It became a proxy war against Iran, and almost nine years later they are still trying to extricate themselves from a quagmire.
The kingdom fought mainly from above, and airstrikes proved ineffective in dislodging the Houthis. It left the ground fighting to inept local partners. The United Arab Emirates had more success, sending thousands of ground troops and trained militias. But it fought mainly in southern Yemen, where the Houthis never enjoyed much support to begin with.
For their part, the Houthis showed little concern about the costs of the war. Yemen is often described as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The UN estimates that 223,000 people have died from hunger and lack of medical care since the war began. 80% of the population now lives in poverty. None of this bothered the Houthis, who stole food aid, imposed a series of taxes to raise money and relied on Iran for military support. They have laid a prolonged siege on the southwestern city of Taiz, preventing civilians from bringing food and medicine – just as they accuse Israel of doing in Gaza.
A group that has emerged stronger from a nine-year war that left thousands of fighters dead and the country plunged into poverty is unlikely to be deterred by a few targeted coalition attacks. To be fair, America and its allies have more limited objectives: they do not want to overthrow the Houthis, just stop their attacks on shipping.
America says it has hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations, using more than 100 precision-guided bombs. The targets include command and control nodes, ammunition depots, launch systems, production facilities and air defense radar. Four British fighter jets also hit two airfields used for launching drones and missiles. The Houthis said there had been a total of 73 attacks, killing five soldiers and wounding another six. These likely degraded, but not eliminated, the Houthi arsenal.
Over the past decade, Iran has supplied the group with a diverse stockpile of anti-ship missiles, including the Paveh with a range of 500 miles. According to a study by Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank, the Houthis now use six different types of anti-ship cruise missiles and another six variants of anti-ship ballistic missiles. the latter are unproven. In addition to the missiles, the Houthis have also experimented with unmanned surface ships, or drone boats.
It is unclear how much of this arsenal survived the barrage. Western warnings and press leaks gave the Houthis weeks to disperse and conceal their weapons, many of which are relatively small and mobile. If a significant portion were to be destroyed, the Houthis could be forced to ration missile attacks, allowing a larger portion to be intercepted by Western warships in the area and creating a safer environment for commercial shipping.
“The detailed results of the attacks are currently being assessed,” the British Ministry of Defense said in a statement, “but there are early indications that the Houthis' ability to threaten merchant shipping has taken a hit.” The fact that the Behshad, an Iranian spy ship likely helping the Houthis with intelligence, left the Red Sea on January 10, perhaps out of fear of being targeted, will also be a setback for the group.
On the other hand, if the arsenal remains largely intact, the Houthis will be able to continue as before – or make good on their promise to expand the campaign. In the long run, Mr. Hinz says, the group will be able to replenish its stockpile by smuggling in new, disassembled systems — anti-ship missiles can be taken apart relatively easily, unlike larger solid-fuel ballistic missiles — and by land to reinstall missiles. ballistic missile attacks for anti-ship use using local facilities and Iranian-supplied guidance kits.
Iran will undoubtedly be happy to send more. Its long relationship with the Houthis has deepened since 2015: Arming and training the group was an easy way for Iran to conquer bloody arch-rival Saudi Arabia and gain a foothold on the Arabian Peninsula. The past few months seem to confirm that strategy. Iran could already harass shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, off the southern coast. Now it can paralyze another vital waterway through the Houthis. “The Red Sea is even more useful for them because they don't have to do it directly,” said a Gulf diplomat. The Houthis have proven their worth to Iran, which will likely bring more Iranian support.
A conflict with the West could also have other advantages for them. Their supposed blockade of Israel has already won them new admiration across the Arab world, capitalizing on pro-Palestinian sentiment at a time when Arab states are worthless spectators of the war in Gaza. Targeting America while anti-Americanism runs high over Mr. Biden's support for Israel will boost their popularity.
It could also strengthen their hand in peace talks with Saudi Arabia. A few years ago, the Saudis might have welcomed Western attacks on the Houthis. Today, they find themselves in the awkward position of calling for calm, fearing that the group may decide to expand its campaign by attacking Gulf states with missiles or drones (as they have done hundreds of times in the past). The events of the past two months will make it clear to the Saudis why they want to make a deal and end their war – even if it means the Houthis remain the dominant force in Yemen.
America does not want to be dragged into another long-term conflict in the Middle East. The Houthis have no problem with that. They survived Mr Saleh, who waged a series of brutal counter-insurgency campaigns against them. They are exhausting the Saudi-led coalition. And now they're no doubt happy to have drawn America into their own open-ended operation.