It was in 2004 when the Congress returned to power at the Center, ousting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after eight years of rule.
Jha's pre-poll prediction
Sanjay Jha said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will reach a maximum of 210-215 Lok Sabha seats out of the total 543 seats. He added that “the BJP could even get below 200”.
READ ALSO: Lok Sabha elections 2024: How accurate are the opinion polls? So far it's been a hit or miss affair
“[Uttar Pradesh] UP could deliver a knockout blow. Across India, change seems to be the key word. Barring an unforeseen black swan moment, the momentum shift signals increasing support for the INDIA alliance. We are seeing a repeat of 2004,” Jha said.
Meanwhile, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed confidence that they will win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with a “historic” 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Jha's 11 reasons for INDIA's 'victory'
Jha shared a “few key insights” after the second phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to establish why he believes the INDIA bloc will win this time.
First, he said that the “voter has had enough of lies, spin-doctoring and substandard propaganda.” He said voters “don't trust anyone.” But “after ten years in power, the trust deficit in the BJP is at its highest,” he claimed.
His second reason was that “there's a huge fatigue factor associated with it [Prime Minister Narendra] Modes”.
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“The standard accusations of dynasty, appeasement and corruption don't work at all because people see the same in the BJP and probably worse. Strange as it may sound, he is both the asset and liability of the BJP,” Jha added.
Jha's other nine reasons pointed to Modi's “anti-Muslim/minority polarisation”, “the arrogance of power led to Modi”, the Prime Minister's “strategic blunder in squeezing Congress's bank accounts, arresting Arvind Kejriwal and threatening the opposition” and the BJP paying “little” attention to new voters.
READ ALSO: Congress claims PM Modi's 'wealth to Muslims' is hate speech. This is what the MCC says about this violation?
'BJP's vote share should fall significantly'
In another point, Jha highlighted how the “floating voter”, who “determines elections everywhere”, is “leaving the BJP because he feels betrayed”.
“The floating voter determines the elections everywhere; but in India it is the largest share at around 50-60%, unlike the US/UK where voting patterns are more predictable. Both the BJP and Congress are stabilizing around a core vote bank of twenty. % each,” Jha tweeted.
He added: “…That floating voter, who expects governance, development, jobs and a democratic syncretic society, is leaving the BJP because he feels betrayed, which is why the big dips in voting for BJP seats in the first two phases explains.”
The former Congress leader said the BJP's vote share should “fall significantly, although this could be offset by gains elsewhere or become more concentrated in safe seats that ensure victory”.
Read Sanjay Jha's full post here:
'The momentum factor'
Jha compared politics to sports and said they are both affected by momentum. “You win, you keep winning. But that spell doesn't last forever. Once it reverses, it goes the other way,” he added.
He added that the Congress and the INDIA bloc have “a discernible tailwind, a visible momentum” at the moment.
“The BJP should soon adopt a stop-loss strategy; further stages could mean more bad news as it usually gets progressively worse. But Modi may have already played his last card of polarization,” Jha said.
A “Stop-loss” strategy is used to prevent more losses when the trend goes against the trading decision by automatically exiting the trade at a threshold point.
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Published: Apr 27, 2024 7:56 PM IST