The cell is trying to tailor responses to the many types of attacks that could emerge in the coming weeks, from cyber-attacks aimed at crippling Ukraine’s electricity grid and pipelines to the seizure of small or large amounts of territory.
Intelligence officials recently said they thought the least likely possibility was a large-scale invasion with the Russians trying to take the capital Kiev. However, many of the reviews have explored Mr Putin’s more step-by-step moves, including taking some more land in the Donbas region, where the war has become a stalemate, or a land bridge to Crimea.
Several officials familiar with the planning say the government is looking at European countries that could provide more assistance to support Ukrainian forces before a conflict, as well as in the early stages of a Russian invasion.
Lieutenant Colonel Anton Semelroth, a Defense Department spokesman, noted in December that the United States had already pledged more than $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014, with $450 million in 2021 alone. In the past three months, it has delivered 180 Javelin missiles, two patrol boats, ammunition for grenade launchers, machine guns, secure radios, medical equipment and other items that US officials describe as defensive in nature.
But the planning cell is considering more lethal weapons, such as anti-aircraft weapons.
After visiting Ukraine last month, Representative Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat and former Marine officer, said that in his opinion, “We need to make every Russian incursion more painful — day 1 painful, not six months from now.”
“We have a short time to take decisive action to deter Putin from a serious invasion,” Moulton said in an interview. “I am concerned that our current deterrence tactics respond to invasion rather than prevent it.”
One option likely to be discussed in NATO in the coming week is a plan to increase the number of troops stationed in the Baltics and southeastern Europe possibly by several thousand.