London:
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces the most dangerous moment of his premiership this week when he must appear before a COVID-19 inquiry and win a crucial vote in Parliament on his plan to revive a policy to allow asylum seekers to to send to Rwanda.
Just over a year since he became prime minister, Rishi Sunak has struggled to maintain his authority as politicians on both the left and right of his Conservative Party threaten to vote against his flagship asylum policy.
Parliament will hold a first vote on Tuesday on legislation that would override a number of human rights laws, with the aim of allowing the first deportation flights to leave for Rwanda before national elections expected next year.
The proposed law is opposed by some moderate Conservative politicians concerned that Britain is breaching its human rights obligations, as well as right-wing lawmakers who want the government to go further. Both parties are seeking legal advice before deciding how to vote.
For Mr Sunak, who is struggling to revive Britain's weak economy and is trailing the main opposition party in opinion polls, Rwanda policy has become the defining issue for his government, despite lawyers at every stage saying it is not will work.
“The Rwanda policy has become an all-out battle and has freed the factions in the Conservative Party to continue their all-out war,” said Tony Travers, professor of politics at the London School of Economics.
The plan was declared unlawful last month by the UK Supreme Court, which said genuine refugees risk being sent back to their home countries, where they could face possible violence or abuse, which would breach UK and international law .
The government has spent around a quarter of a billion pounds on the scheme, hoping it will deter the tens of thousands of people – including from Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq – who arrive on the south coast of England after crossing from France in small boats. .
In a sign of how uncertain Mr Sunak is about the scale of a parliamentary rebellion, he decided not to call it a confidence vote. Had Sunak done so and lost, he would have faced calls to hold a general election.
But the prime minister risks being seriously weakened if he loses a vote on the legislation. Only 29 Conservative MPs would have to rise up to defeat the government.
Asked on Sunday whether Mr Sunak would call a snap election if the legislation failed to pass, Michael Gove, a senior minister in charge of regional development and housing, played down the possibility.
“No, we are not considering that because I am confident that when people look at the legislation and have a chance to think about it, they will recognize that this is a tough but also proportionate measure,” he told Sky News.
Divisions
Sunak finds himself in a similar crisis that engulfed the Conservative Party under former Prime Minister Theresa May during the Brexit battle from 2016 to 2019.
Once again a Prime Minister faces a revolt from backstabbing MPs, there are rumors that colleagues are plotting a leadership challenge, there are concerns that Britain will abandon its international commitments, and there are questions about the power of Parliament versus the judiciary. power.
Ahead of Tuesday's vote, Mr Sunak will appear at the official COVID-19 inquiry on Monday for a day-long hearing examining his role in response to the pandemic.
Mr Sunak, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, has been accused by a former government adviser of saying the government should “just let people die” rather than impose a lockdown because he was concerned about the impact on the economy. economy.
But the bigger danger for Sunak will come from the parliamentary battle over his Rwanda policy.
Some lawmakers said that while they expected the government to win Tuesday's vote, there would be a bigger showdown in the next phase, when they are likely to vote on the amendments after Christmas.
“Then the rebels step in,” said a Rishi Sunak supporter in the Conservative parliament.
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden underlined the threat to the government last week when he warned colleagues it would be “madness” to oust Mr Sunak.
Britain was once known for its stable politics. But if Sunak were ousted, the country would have its sixth prime minister in just over seven years for the first time since the 1830s.
Another Conservative politician said her colleagues needed to remember that “politics is a team game.”
“If we had another leadership contest, we would be destroyed in the next election,” she said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)