California has long beckoned with its coastal beauty and bustle: the magnetic lure of Hollywood, the power of Silicon Valley.
That appeal has helped make it a cultural, economic, and political force. For 170 years, growth was constant and expansion felt limitless. And it was easy to get carried away by the lore.
“Everyone knew that there was no prejudice or discrimination of any kind, that the streets were paved with gold, and that anyone could be anyone—it was the land of the future,” recalls Adrian Dove, longtime president of the Kingdom Day parade in South -Africa. Los Angeles.
By early 2020, California’s population had risen to nearly 40 million, with another 10 million expected in the coming decades.
Then, with the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath, the trend reversed: the state lost more people than it gained in the past three years and shrank to less than 39 million people. Recent data released by the Treasury Department now offers a stunning forecast: The population could stagnate for the next four decades.
Suddenly the Golden State, so proudly aware of its popularity, has to rethink its identity.
When Mr. Dove moved to Los Angeles from Dallas as a child in 1945, he felt a sense of freedom when it came to his ambitions. After graduating from Compton High School, he went on to study at Harvard University. But now, at the age of 88, Mr. Dove recognizes that similar trajectories may seem unattainable to many in a region he believes has ample resources but struggles to spread the wealth.
“California is still the dream,” he said, “but there isn’t enough for everyone.”
That sentiment echoes across the state as rents rise, the median sales price of a single-family home hovers around $830,000, and the number of homeless camps increases. The promise of an easy life in the Mediterranean weather has faded in the shadow of a housing crisis.
“We are witnessing the death of what really made California great, which is the middle class,” says 60-year-old author Héctor Tobar, whose novels have explored the state’s economic divide.
“What fueled the population growth was the new subdivisions, it was people migrating here to get a taste of middle class life. And today California is more divided than ever between rich and poor.”
Mr. Tobar’s father was able to access that middle-class life. He came from Guatemala with a sixth grade education, but eventually managed to get an associate degree and find work in the hotel industry. Living in California, he insisted, meant his son would grow taller than he was. “I suspected we would grow into a race of giants,” Mr. Tobar said. “It was a place of abundance and opportunity.”
The reasons for the plateau are not surprising. Fertility rates have fallen as couples wait longer to have children and focus on education or building their careers. This can often mean that you will have fewer or no children. At the same time, the mortality rate is expected to increase as the baby boom generation ages.
The most variable and perhaps crucial component of the projected population is migration.
It’s not a new phenomenon for people to leave the state to find a new job, find a lower cost of living or get closer to their families. But as Covid-19 restrictions came into effect, these factors were amplified. Employees were allowed to perform the same work remotely in another state while dramatically reducing their spending. And immigration came to a halt.
Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, said those who leave make up about 1 or 2 percent of the total population, not the exodus some would believe. (“Tell me, where are you going?” former Governor Jerry Brown once mused, dismissing the popular notion that Californians were flocking elsewhere.) But, Mr. McGhee noted, these chambers send a disturbing signal about the lifestyle available in California that the state is less welcoming to lower wage workers and younger generations.
“There is a broader philosophical question that has to do with why we lose people to other states?” he said. “How come California, which has these very dynamic industries, can’t seem to accommodate the people who want to be here?”
Politically, California’s influence could decline, while other states such as Texas and Florida could grow. California has already lost a congressional district for the first time in its history after the 2020 census, and could eventually lose more.
A shortage of young people and immigrants will also lead to less consumer spending and a smaller workforce, threatening the momentum that has fueled California’s growth for decades.
California is already in a constant state of hitting its limits: the dramatic swings between floods and droughts. A persistent homeless crisis that has increased tension in many cities. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Even Hollywood has lost its luster as the ongoing strikes reveal deep problems for the film industry in a digital age.
America has always had a frontier mentality, but maybe that needs to be rethought, says Chris Tilly, a professor of urban planning and sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles.
“Maybe it’s time we grow up and realize we live in a world of boundaries,” he said. “That could be a level of maturity. If California is in a position to lead the country and come to terms with restrictions on growth, that could be one way California can still lead. That could be a really interesting twist.”
Of course, the population was never intended to grow indefinitely. Flattening can be a good thing when it comes to creating more sustainable approaches as climate change forces California to think differently. For example, the rising threat of catastrophic wildfires has convinced many leaders that the state cannot continue to convert rural areas into large suburbs.
And California remains the country’s most populous state, with 10 million more residents than Texas, the second-largest state. Government agencies that look to the data to make planning decisions use it to make projections, but don’t raise the alarm.
“For us, the momentum is not changing,” said Kome Ajise, executive director of the Southern California Association of Governments, a joint power authority focused on mobility, sustainability and liveability.
“There’s a mythical feel about California, but there’s a content to that appeal that’s more real,” Mr Ajise said. “We have all the fundamental industries, such as entertainment and hospitality, and a large job market. California’s economic base is still there.”
Natalia Molina, a professor of American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California, said the state’s path could be seen “as a harbinger of what it means when you have no affordable housing, no investments in social services, no clear immigration.” policy.”
Still, Ms. Molina notes that her grandmother left Mexico and arrived in California alone, then ran a successful restaurant that welcomed other immigrants. Similar stories seemed apparent to her on a recent Saturday when she grabbed a sandwich at a century-old diner founded by a French immigrant in downtown Los Angeles and then drove through Chinatown, which is home to both aguas frescas and boba.
Communities have sprung up here that still feel special and worth staying for, she said.
“As long as people show up and are willing to do the work,” she said, “the California dream is alive and well, even if it’s a bit more anemic these days.”