A surprise multi-front attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas is likely to trigger a massive military retaliation against Gaza and possibly a wider conflagration with consequences beyond the Middle East.
The flare-up – involving infiltrations, the capture of soldiers and civilians and thousands of rockets – comes at a time of enormous diplomatic sensitivity and a moment of weakness for Israel that analysts have warned its enemies could try to exploit.
The country is negotiating a complex three-way agreement with the US and Saudi Arabia in which Washington would provide security guarantees to Riyadh. The Saudis, in turn, would normalize relations with Israel. Israel has also discussed gas exports to Europe and trade corridors from Asia with Turkey and others.
Internally, Israel is embroiled in political turmoil that has left it vulnerable. Last April, the country was briefly involved in three simultaneous fronts – Gaza, Lebanon and Syria – after rockets were fired from all three. Part of the impetus was Israeli Jews entering the grounds of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. That also happened last week.
“I cannot rule out a war in multiple arenas that will pose a very serious threat to the State of Israel,” Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser in Israel, said in a briefing with journalists. However, he added that Israel prefers to fight one enemy at a time and would not quickly open a new front.
Israeli officials have said for months that Palestinian militant groups, led and financed by Iran, were preparing for violence and that Israel was prepared to strike back. That said, Saturday’s attack on the Sabbath and Jewish holiday clearly caught the country by surprise, adding to a sense of woundedness that could fuel the response.
Nation at war
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the focus of weekly anti-government demonstrations, is likely to experience a moment of national unity after the attack, prompting opposition politicians to back a strong response. The protest that was supposed to take place on Saturday evening was canceled.
“Citizens of Israel, we are at war,” Netanyahu said in a videotaped statement. ‘Not during an operation. Not back and forth. At war.’ He added: “The enemy will pay a price he has never known.”
The conflict could further weigh on Israel’s financial markets, which have been in turmoil this year due to mass protests against a government plan to weaken the power of judges. The shekel has fallen nearly 9% against the dollar, one of the worst performances among major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, while investment in Israel’s technology sector has fallen.
The last major Israeli military operation against Hamas in Gaza took place in 2014. It lasted seven weeks and killed more than 2,000 Palestinians there, along with dozens of Israelis.
Risk in the West Bank
Part of the Saudi deal is expected to include Israeli concessions in the West Bank to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and increase the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. This arrangement will be jeopardized if the latest fighting prompts Israel to expand its operation into the West Bank.
Saudi Arabia wants American protection guarantees, partly because of its own concerns about Iran. If it turns out that Iran plays a key role in Saturday’s attack on Israel, it could affect the negotiations.
Forty people have been confirmed dead in the current fighting in Israel, as well as hundreds injured. Thousands of Israeli reservists have been called up. In Gaza, Hamas’ health ministry said Israeli retaliatory strikes had injured more than 500 people who were taken to hospital.
Hours after the infiltrations began, Israeli soldiers were still engaged in gun battles in half a dozen southern towns and at at least one military base. Hamas operatives appeared to have taken over a collective farm in Israel and captured Israelis.
Adding to the pressure on Netanyahu, the attack is widely described as the worst failure of Israeli defense since Syria and Egypt launched an unexpected war against the country 50 years ago.
“This appears to be a colossal intelligence failure by the Israeli establishment,” said Jonathan Conricus, a former Israeli military spokesman. “What we are seeing indicates a long and meticulous planning that should have been addressed. Very difficult questions are being asked and tough answers will have to be given.”
Iran question
Conricus blamed Iran, at least indirectly, for being behind the attack and speculated that the Israeli response could spread beyond Gaza.
The army is stepping up its defenses near the border with Lebanon, where the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah operates, and is also closely monitoring developments in the occupied West Bank.
Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli army spokesman, said the infiltrators came by road, sea and air and that the surprise of the operation would be investigated.
The question now is how the confrontation will escalate, said Miri Eisen, a retired colonel who worked in military intelligence and now heads a counterterrorism institute at Reichman University in Israel. Whether this will lead to a bigger war “is the $64,000 question,” she said. “If Iran has a finger in this, are we now anticipating the next phase?”