The US and NATO believe Belarus could “soon” join Russia in its war against Ukraine, US and NATO officials tell DailyExpertNews, and the country is already taking steps to do so.
It is becoming “more likely” that Belarus will join the conflict, a NATO military official said Monday.
Putin needs support. Anything would help,” the official explained.
A Belarusian opposition source said Belarusian combat units are poised to invade Ukraine in the coming days, with thousands of troops poised to deploy. According to this source, this will have less of an impact militarily than geopolitically, given the implications of another country joining the war.
A senior NATO intelligence official said separately that the alliance assesses that the Belarusian government is “preparing the environment to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine”.
Belarusians voted to admit the country last month to permanently house both Russian armed forces and nuclear weapons, although US officials have emphasized to DailyExpertNews that they have not yet seen evidence that Russia is moving nuclear weapons or preparing.
The sources stressed that to date there is no indication that Belarus is currently participating in the fighting in Ukraine, and a senior US defense official said the Pentagon had not seen any indication that the Belarusians are preparing to … go to Ukraine or that they have made agreements about that.”
The NATO military official said a final decision on Belarus’ involvement in the war has yet to be taken in Moscow, and so far there is no indication that Belarusian troops are participating in the fighting in Ukraine.
“It’s not about what” [Alexander] Lukashenko wants,” the official explained, referring to the Belarusian president. “The question is, does Putin want another unstable country in the region?”
“Involvement would destabilize Belarus,” the official said.
The official declined to elaborate on how Belarus might intervene in the war, but said it made sense for Russia to try to cut off NATO military aid entering Ukraine through its western border.
More background: Russia is using Belarus as a springboard for many of its air operations in Ukraine, according to intelligence gathered by NATO surveillance planes flying over the Polish-Ukrainian border and radar seen by DailyExpertNews.
Barbara Starr of DailyExpertNews contributed to this post.